The social inventory of Fangguan has reversed the three-month upward trend and declined for the first time; the environmental protection has become stricter again, and recently many production restriction notices have been issued; the two sessions have been set, and the capital construction efforts have been increased again; the weather has warmed up, and downstream demand has started one after another. With the continuous spread of good news, will steel prices rise sharply after a year of shocks? As of March 8, 2019, according to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Merchant Platform, the social inventory of square managers in 29 key cities in China was 16.239 million tons, down by 191,000 tons compared with last week, down by 1.2% on the circumference ratio and 8.0% on the year-on-year basis; the social inventory of square managers fell for the first time after the Spring Festival. From the data, we can see that this year's inventory decline time is basically the same as last year, and this year's inventory highs have declined from last year, and the decline rate is higher than last year. With the decline of inventory, steel prices have formed a certain support. 环保政策也呈现趋严的状况，在两会之前，唐山市便发布相应的环保停产令，其中烧结限产，轧钢停产。随着两会开幕空气转好，本该解除的限产令却直接转变成延长停产令；日前，唐山印发《3月份大气污染防治强化管控措施实施方案》，管控时间为2019年3月1日至31日。河北武安等钢铁行业自3月3日至3月31日错峰生产、3月份钢厂集中检修等，对于方管产量起到了一定影响。
The environmental protection policy is also becoming stricter. Before the two sessions, Tangshan City issued corresponding environmental protection shutdown orders, including sintering production restriction and rolling production shutdown. As the air improved at the opening of the two sessions, the production restriction order that should have been lifted was directly transformed into a prolonged stop-production order. Recently, Tangshan issued the "Implementation Plan of Enhanced Control Measures for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in March", which lasted from March 1 to 31, 2019. Hebei Wuan and other iron and steel industries from March 3 to March 31 staggered peak production, March steel plant centralized overhaul, etc., has played a certain impact on square pipe production.
At the same time, affected by the stricter policy of environmental protection and production restriction, steel mill overhaul in some areas increased rapidly this week, and blast furnace start-up rate of domestic small and medium-sized steel enterprises increased, mainly in Shanxi and Hebei. As of March 8, 2019, among the 100 small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises surveyed by Lange Iron and Steel Yunchang Platform, 113 blast furnaces in 75 steel plants have been repaired (including shutdown and baking equipment, the same below), 11 more than last week (11 new blast furnaces are repaired this week, 0 blast furnaces are re-produced). The volume of the repaired blast furnaces is 94310 cubic meters, 9140 cubic meters more than last week, and 100 small and medium-sized iron and steel are calculated by volume. The blast furnace start-up rate of enterprises is 74.26%, which is 2.49 percentage points lower than that of last week and 1 percentage point higher than that of the same period last year. In the first quarter of this year, the national steel production is expected to increase by a limited amount compared with the same period last year.
In addition, in the report on the work of the two sessions, it was emphasized that the work of pollution prevention and control should be continuously promoted, relevant systems should be reformed and improved, and high-quality development and ecological environment protection should be coordinated and promoted. For the iron and steel industry, the ultra-low emission transformation will be carried out, and the heavy pollution industry will be reformed to meet the discharge standards. We will intensify efforts to "break, stand and fall" and promote market-oriented production of iron and steel and coal industries.
In terms of infrastructure construction, the report on the work of this year's NPC and CPPCC sessions proposed that the new high-speed railway operation mileage will be 4100 kilometers, the new highway will be rebuilt more than 6,000 kilometers, and the rural highway will be more than 300,000 kilometers. We will rationally expand effective investment, complete 800 billion yuan in railway investment, 1.8 trillion yuan in highway and waterway investment, and start a number of major water conservancy projects. This year, the central budget allocated 577.6 billion yuan for investment, an increase of 40 billion yuan over last year.
From the demand point of view, although the weather in some areas after the year is not good, the rain and snow weather is frequent. But the weather is getting better in the near future. With the temperature rising, downstream projects are also starting, and demand will continue to increase. From the daily turnover of Beijing building materials market monitored by Langer Iron and Steel Network, the daily turnover of Beijing building materials market in March has climbed to 9,500 tons, which is more than 2,000 tons higher than the same period last year.
Then, can steel prices rise substantially in the later period, and there will be a phenomena of skyrocketing?
Analyst Ma Li said that from the macroeconomic, monetary policy, Sino-US trade trend cooperation, less inventory pressure and other aspects, in March-April this year, the domestic market environment is better than the same period last year, the overall price is stable, it is difficult to rise sharply, but also do not have the conditions for a sharp fall.
Ma Guanghui, an analyst, said that at present, we should focus on demand start-up, the speed of inventory removal, steel plant production and the actual landing of environmental protection. At the same time, we should pay more attention to the transfer of futures and market sentiment. In the absence of falsification of current demand, in the medium and long term, there is still an upward opportunity for market shocks.
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