This week (1.25-2.1), the price of domestic square tubes fluctuates little. Monitoring data show that as of February 1, the average price of 4-inch square tubes in ten major cities in China is 4182 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is equal to the same price of square tubes in the same period last week. The holiday arrangements for leading management plants and traders in Hebei region are basically 1.20-29 days, and the price adjustment will not be strong, but the news and futures are not calm. As for billets, the price was set at 3,430 yuan after a short lock price was unlocked shortly last Friday. According to statistics, the stock of billets in Tangshan's main warehouse on the 1st day was about 333,000 tons, an increase of 66.5% over the previous period (25 days). It was about 500,000 tons less than the same period last year (28 December, 13 February). In addition, the dam-break event has a certain impact on the futures market, but the impact of the spot market of billets has been neglected. Its profit is relatively low, so the supply of production is not as high as last year, and the price is obviously high. After the festival, the price may rise slightly, and then the downside risk will be mismatched with the supply and demand. 带钢方面，截至今日唐山热轧带钢(2.5*355mm)唐山瑞丰3650，较上周同期涨10元。基本维持周初涨后持稳的态势，岁末年终商家陆续退市放假，市场 成交寥寥，多数执行前期锁价政策，仅个别有出货， 28日145mm系列窄带厂家放假休市，后半周出货不计，周内单日平均出货5700吨，较上周降500吨。无锡地区产能利用率较上周明显降低，轧材企业全 部停产放假，仅剩3家全流程钢厂以协议为主，当地贸易商库存较上周增幅达60%以上，预计节后库存仍将大幅增加，价格或将小幅上调。
As for strip steel, Tangshan hot-rolled strip (2.5*355mm) Tangshan Ruifeng 3650, up 10 yuan from the same period last week. Maintaining the steady trend after the early week rise, the end of the year and the end of the year, businessmen have withdrawn from the market for holidays, market turnover is scarce, most of them implement the policy of early lock price, only a few shipments, on the 28th 145mm series of narrowband manufacturers leave the market, the latter half of the week does not count shipments, the average daily shipment within the week is 5700 tons, 500 tons lower than last week. The utilization ratio of production capacity in Wuxi area is significantly lower than last week. All rolling mills are shut down for holidays. Only three full-process steel mills are dominated by agreements. Inventories of local traders have increased by more than 60% compared with last week. Inventories are expected to increase substantially after the festival, and prices may rise slightly.
Welded Pipe Market
This week, macro news and futures market stimulus have made it possible to reshape the annual trend forecast of raw iron ore. Sun Ming, author of Langer Iron and Steel Network, believes that the actual market impact will take another month or two to consider, and will continue to pay attention to the impact of the development of this event on the specific use and demand of Brazilian minerals in China. In the spot market, due to the planned production shutdown around 25 days ago, the sales staff arranged more agreement volume this week, and some of the winter storage resources of the management plant moved forward to the northern market and port; after the festival, construction was tentatively scheduled for 2.11-20 days, and the rhythm of raw materials and specifications adjustment operation was scheduled around the end of February. Markets and traders are also closing down one after another. Individuals operate normally until December 289, arranging for a small number of orders and reminders; most of them start work around the eighth to eleventh day of the lunar calendar after the festival. According to the data from the Lange survey, this week (02.01) domestic domestic managed inventory: according to incomplete statistics, 22 cities have 268,400 tons of inventory, an increase of 0.55 million tons, an increase of 2.09% over the same period last week.
Monitoring data show that as of February 1, Tangshan Youfa produced 4 inches (3.75) of new GBS cash at a factory price of 3880 yuan; Tangshan Jinghua produced 4 inches (3.75) of new GBS cash at a factory price of 3900 yuan; Jili (Zhengda) produced 4 inches (3.75) of new GBS cash at a factory price of 3930 yuan.
Generally speaking, near the Spring Festival, the overall spot market operation will not be strong, while the futures market under the influence of certain information, the volume of futures hedging increased; at the same time, under the premise of the increase of raw material cost-profit ratio, productivity utilization ratio and billet demand, the price achieved the bottom, and the policy of upstream and downstream steel pipe during the Spring Festival was more flexible to control; Quarterly demand resilience will have a great probability to affect the sustainability of the post-season mismatch between supply and demand, and there is a expectation that prices will bottom out after rising.
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